It was a heart-stopping Sunday, one of those that Argentine democracy – which is celebrating its 40th anniversary – gives away from time to time. A time of tension, uncertainty with forces that promote denialism, the destruction of the State and the rupture of social containment networks, which were opposed by work, militancy, the State, effort and politics so that by the end of this Sunday of elections comes the reward. That which translated into the comeback of Sergio Massa of Unión por la Patria (36.68 percent) that not only left Patricia Bullrich of JxC behind and far behind (23.83 percent), but fundamentally surpassed the winner of the PASO, the candidate of La Libertad Avanza (LLA), Javier Milei (29.99 percent).
Now comes a new moment, four endless weeks until the runoff. Massa did not waste time and already began to look for those necessary votes that are on the left, the Peronism of Córdoba, the radicals, but also in the disenchanted who voted blank or were absent. «I tell all of them that I will make the greatest effort to earn their trust,» said the Tigrense and promised: «Many of those who voted for us are the ones who are suffering the most, I am not going to fail them. Please know that since December 10 «I’m not going to let them down.»
The formula made up of Sergio Massa and Agustín Rossi increased the harvest in the PASO by 15 points. The reasons lie in the implemented policies imposed by the candidate minister who already governs before a faded president. We must add the management of Axel Kicillof in the province of Buenos Aires, which served as a barrier against the libertarian forces (which resulted in a resounding victory), and also the recovery of the votes lost by Peronism in provinces such as Tucumán and The Rioja.
It is worth clarifying that Unión por la Patria (UxP) recovered a good number of votes since the 6.5 million obtained in the PASO now rose to 9.5 million. A clean and jerk that is essential to maintain until November. On the contrary, Milei added only 700 thousand votes to the 7.1 million that she got in the primaries. It stagnated in absolute terms and fell in percentage terms.
Joy and micromilitancy
Joy was always a notable characteristic of the mobilizations of Peronism and its frontist versions. The years of the governments of Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner represent a clear example. However, with the Frente de Todos government, pandemic and management failures, that street began to move away. But the results of this presidential election show that it had been a temporary issue because the strength of that joy and the decision to have a national, popular and democratic government caused a hurricane of what is now called «micromilitancy» that, if you will, It pushed and dragged the party structures of the parties that make up Unión por la Patria to recover the lost votes and even renew the hope necessary not only to prevail in the result but to reach the runoff.
This internal force within UxP must be taken into account and not seen only with sympathy. Firstly because we still have to overcome the second round and secondly because, as Massa himself recognized, militancy is not only expressed on the street but also on social networks, a space where this «micro-militancy» worked overtime.
«The true protagonists of this triumph are the militants. Neither resignation nor anti-politics defeated us,» Axel Kicillof acknowledged in his extensive triumphant speech. A re-election guaranteed with a formidable state management that even overcame setbacks such as the Insaurralde affair: in Lomas de Zamora, Federico Otermin retained the mayorship with 49.81 percent of the votes.
Kicillof’s push
The Governor, with his re-election, keeps an important share of the UxP victory. Retaining the most important district in Argentina was strategic: «This victory gives us strength, but the campaign did not end in the province of Buenos Aires. The campaign ends when Massa is the next president,» Kicillof warned and highlighted the «commitment of Massa with production, infrastructure, income distribution and improved salaries» to combat the biggest enemy of an official candidate: inflation.
Precisely in this scenario of rampant inflation, Massa’s victory can well be considered a miracle. Now, it was not due to the work of some holy spirit but rather due to purely earthly issues. The measures that Massa implemented – and that Kicillof highlighted – to recover purchasing power were substantial, but there is one more piece of information and that is precisely Javier Milei. His appearance, violent and disruptive, ended up displacing the economic issue to prevail in the political-ideological debate where Peronism deployed its best tools such as control of the State in favor of policies that guarantee rights and containment of the great majorities.
Now, all this was not enough to win in the first round and now a space-time gap opens up until November 19 for Massa to reach the necessary agreements to transform this Sunday’s miracle into an effective reality.
The negotiations to come
Massa did not hide before or even during his triumphant speech last night the imperative need to form a government of national unity and, for that, we must sit down to negotiate. He said it unequivocally: «I speak to the Argentines who voted blank, to those who did not go, to those who elected Myriam (Bregman), Juan (Schiaretti), I want to speak to the thousands of radicals who share values with us democratic, but I also speak to those who chose another option thinking of having an Argentina in peace, with order, with democratic values, those who want a country without uncertainties and with certainties. To all of them I say that I will make the greatest effort to earn their trust».
Although the FIT-U did not improve its performance in the PASO, those almost 700 thousand votes that Bregman obtained, although a low percentage, are not bad in a runoff.
The negotiation with Schiaretti is not easy. Schiaretti was tough on Kirchnerism and will assert his substantial improvement in votes, he went from 3.83 percent in the PASO to almost 7 percent, when it came to negotiating. In any case, it will be necessary to see what the attitude of Martín Llaryora, the elected governor and leader of the Mediterranean PJ, will be regarding the proposal for a national unity government launched by Massa.
The result of these negotiations can not only improve the electoral possibilities for November. It also serves the future since, if it is a government, the links generated during this time also translate into the possibility of improving the fate of the legislative projects promoted by the possible Executive led by Massa.
The congress
As of December 10 in the Chamber of Deputies, UxP – today Frente de Todos – will have 108 of its own legislators, followed by Together for Change with 93 of its own deputies and, finally, La Libertad Avanza will go from two to 37 deputies. In the Senate, meanwhile, Peronism will recover the first minority and will be very close to a quorum: it will have 35 senators (including the two from the missionary Frente de la Concordia). JxC, meanwhile, will have 24 senators and the libertarians will debut in the upper house with eight senators.
The Milei factor – Bullrich
With a numb face, Patricia Bullrich acknowledged defeat but did not congratulate those who overcame it and must compete in the second round. Of course, she repeated her anti-Kirchnerist diatribes. As she always did, she accused the Unión por la Patria government of being responsible for «having impoverished the country.» Although she said that JxC’s values »cannot be sold or bought, we are not going to negotiate it,» she did not have any words for Milei, not even to criticize him. It could have been a momentary forgetfulness or part of a future agreement.
In fact, when Milei finally spoke at the Hotel Libertador, curiously he did not quote Bullrich and assumed the anti-Kirchnerist speech as his own. «I come to end the process of aggressions and attacks, I am willing to shuffle again with the aim of ending Kirchnerism. The choice before us is very clear: either we change or we sink,» she said. A gesture, a message.
«We are facing a historic event,» said the LLA candidate and then congratulated Rogelio Frigerio, whom he considered the winner of the Entre Ríos governorship and Jorge Macri called him head of the Buenos Aires government. More gestures, more messages.
Now begins a new stage in a complex and even disruptive electoral process. Just as Milei became the first PASO winner to be defeated in the first round, Massa has to break another rule, winning the first round and also the runoff.