He dollar in Uruguay It continues its upward trajectory that left a positive balance of 2.56% in September and also promises a good appreciation during October, hand in hand with the strengthening that the US currency is experiencing around the world.
October started on the right foot for the dollar, with a price of 38,721 pesos at the close of the first exchange day of the month, according to the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). This was possible thanks to the rise of 0.43% that it experienced compared to last Friday, which allowed it to almost completely recover the value that had fallen at the end of a September that, in any case, registered the largest monthly rise in the currency in more than a year.
Even so, the fall of dollar So far this year it is still 3.37%, while year-on-year, the delay is 7.22%.
The global dollar continues to strengthen
Beyond the fact that the recovery of dollar In the local exchange market it is still far from being ideal, the performance of the US currency globally allows us to have certain illusions regarding the future performance – in the short and medium term – of the price.
In that sense, since July, the dollar index —which compares the exchange rate against a basket of strong currencies— rose more than 7% and continues to rise, driven by the decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep benchmark interest rates high. This, along with the recent vote for a more austere budget in USA and the confirmation that the restrictive monetary policy will be maintained, push the currency in the opposite direction to what was the trend during the first half of the year.
In parallel, the emerging currencies They continue to experience the “rebound effect” of the spectacular performance they had for much of the year, a phenomenon led by the Brazilian real—the reference market for the Uruguayan, so the peso accompanies its behavior in general terms.
A new downward correction for the dollar
Meanwhile, the market once again corrected downwards its projections for the value of the dollar at the end of the year, despite the better performance of the currency price. This is how the BCU announced it in the Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) September, where the analysts consulted expect it to be trading around 39.40 pesos at the end of the year.
In this way, the market seems to digest the exchange delay that crosses the country and that aroused criticism from different sectors, mainly agro-exporters; with an expectation that was far from the 42.10 pesos they believed the US currency could reach when the year began.
The expected value of dollar It had a median of 39.40 pesos and an average of 39.23 pesos, according to the response of the 23 specialists consulted by the BCU, with answers that ranged between 38 and 40 pesos.
With the downward correction, the dollar current is less than one peso away from reaching analysts’ projections.