Axel Kicillof approaches the 40 percentage points of voting intention facing the October 22 election in which he seeks to renew his mandate as governor. The president shows a 10 percent difference on Nestor Grindetti who, at the same time, appears for the first time detached from Carolina Piparo. The data comes from the latest study carried out by the consulting firm Circuits, by political scientist Pablo Romá. The numbers, with projection of undecided, are: 39.9 Kicillof, 31 Grindetti and 22.4 Píparo.
The last known polls agreed on the governor’s advantage over his opponents, which was expanded compared to last August’s elections, but they placed both opposition candidates, the mayor of Lanús on leave and president of Independiente, Néstor Grindetti, and the national representative Carolina Píparo, virtually tied, with differences in favor of one or the other smaller than the margin of sampling error.
Another relevant fact is that the differences between the measurement of the different gubernatorial candidates and their respective presidential candidates are minimal and, therefore, plausible: Sergio Massa tops with 38.8 (just one point less than Kicillof), followed by Patricia Bullrich with 31.6 (half a point more than Grindetti) and closes Javier Milei with 23.7 (1.3 more than Píparo). With these numbers in the province of Buenos Aires, the district with the greatest electoral weight in the country, the proclaimed intentions of the far-right candidate to define in October do not seem realistic.
Historically, spontaneous ballot cutting in the province does not exceed 3 or 4 points, so it is a common phenomenon that, as the election date approaches, the difference between those who share a ballot is reduced until it stabilizes at equal percentages. or less than that figure.
The survey includes a series of questions linked to social humor and concern about the economy. 52.4 percent believe that the situation will worsen in the coming months, 21.4 believe it will remain stable and 19.4 believe it will improve. Regarding the dominant mood or feeling, it is the first time that pessimism falls to second place, with 32.7, behind uncertainty, with 35.8. 21.8 is optimistic and 9.7 does not know.
Economy and social humor
The study includes a question about the interference of IMFwhich forced a 20-point devaluation on the Monday after the PASSED and, as stated by the Minister of Economy and presidential candidate, Sergio Massa, he originally intended to bring it to 60 percent.
When asked “Which of these phrases do you feel most identified with?”, almost 24% leaned towards “The adjustment is necessary but must be compensated with social policies”, for 23rd “The adjustment is not enough and more are necessary.” cuts”, for 17 “The adjustment benefits the IMF and hits workers and retirees”, for 15 “the government is not carrying out an adjustment” and the remaining 20 do not know.
Sergio Massa’s latest decisions seem like a tailored response for that majority 24 percent that demands social containment, which could be extended to the 17 out of every hundred who are dissatisfied with the IMF’s protection. However, up to now no study asks about the knowledge of the origin of the debt with the Fund, nor does it delve into intersections that allow us to know which sector of society demands a greater adjustment or how it would affect them.
During the first two years of his administration, during the pandemic and before the agreement, the president’s decision Alberto Fernandez was not to talk about the «heavy inheritance», neither from the IMF, nor from Macri. Several experts agree that this omission reduces the competitiveness of the ruling party and allows a certain freedom for the JxC candidates to talk about the economy, as if they had no responsibility for the present. The videos from the Instagram account Undisciplined, which has grown a lot in recent weeks, seem to support this hypothesis.
The survey was carried out between September 7 and 9, that is, before Sergio Massa announced, last week, the modification in the income tax floor and the VAT refund, the impact of which has not yet been measured. The base of the survey is 1,375 cases, respecting quotas for sex, age and geographical distribution. The data were collected by telephone and the margin of error is 3.5 points.
Pablo Romá, the head of Circuits, is the son of the historic Justicialist leader Rafael “Balito” Romáwho was mayor of his city, Ramallo, vice-governor of the province in the time of Eduardo Duhalde and later ambassador to Paraguay.