Sergio Massa and Javier Milei persist in what is called a technical tie, with the candidate of Union for the Homeland (UxP) with 1.4 points advantage over the applicant from Freedom Advances (LLA). There are still 8 percent of citizens who did not define their vote or opt for a blank or null vote. Beyond the data on voting intention, what is perceived is a greater difference when evaluating capabilities. For example, Almost half of those consulted say that they are afraid of Javier Milei and 6 out of 10 maintain that the libertarian is just another politician, like any other.
In conceptual aspects, citizens also seem closer to Massa: 55.2 percent maintain that “the objective of a society should be social justice for all its members,” while 40.3 percent believe that “ The objective of a society must be the individual freedom of all its members.” A striking fact is that more than half of Argentines believe that Massa will be the next president, clearly above Milei.
An in-person survey
The data comes from a national survey conducted by the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (CELAG)who leads Alfredo Serrano Mancilla. The work is of maximum magnitude: There are 2,005 citizens interviewed in person, face to face. This methodology is the one with the highest costs but allows for more precise interviews and many claim that it is the one that best reflects the lower income groups, while telephone surveys better perceive the middle class. It is a thorny terrain in which each consultant defends his methodology, although it is clear that the personal dialogue of the interviewer and the respondent is an added value. Obviously, the CELAG survey respected the proportions by age, sex, and economic-social level and was carried out in 27 locations in 18 provinces. The survey finished processing this Thursday.
The intention to vote and the conceptual
As can be seen, there is considerable parity in voting intention, as reflected in other surveys. Massa reaps 46.7 percent compared to Mile’s 45.3. If those who are undecided or say that they are not going to vote or will vote white are excepted, the runoff would be 50.8 for Massa against 49.2 for Milei. Very even and with a reserved prognosis.
However, the distinction of the work led by Serrano Mansilla is that conceptually There is an inclination that puts Massa in better conditions to grow in voting intention.
- Almost 60 percent of those consulted by CELAG affirm that “the IMF’s instructions condition economic policy and will make the crisis worse.” That is Massa’s position. What Milei maintains, “the instructions given by the IMF are the only way to stabilize the economy,” is supported by a minority of 33 percent.
- Something similar happens with the dollar. “The dollar increases due to speculators,” which Massa says, is supported by 52 percent. “The blue dollar increases due to the markets,” which Milei claims, is much lower, at 40 percent.
- Only 35 percent say that Milei is someone outside of politics and its vices. That represents a strong deterioration of that image that she had been giving from the beginning. Surely her alliance with Mauricio Macri worked against her in this area.
- Added to this is that more respondents consider Massa more prepared to govern and, on the other hand, Milei is the one who produces the most fear.
- In two other essential, decisive questions, Massa is much better considered. The Tigrense is the closest to the common people (48 percent) compared to a Milei who only 36 percent consider close to the common people. Massa is the one with the greatest capacity for dialogue and negotiation, 53 percent affirm, contrasting with only 36 percent who see that quality in the libertarian.
- There is one point – a single point – in which Milei seems to rank better than Massa: in the ability to solve the problems of prices and inflation. 46 percent lean towards Milei in this regard and 40 percent towards Massa. There is not much distance between one and the other.
- On the other hand, there is a significant segment of the population that is afraid of the cuts that Milei promises in Education, Health, retirements, and social plans. They are essential questions that any citizen evaluates.
They perceive Massa as the next president
There is a significant fact in the work of Serrano Mansilla. Consultants often give importance to society’s perception of who will be the next president. And there is a clear majority, almost 52 percent, that says that the next government will be headed by Sergio Massa and only 43 percent believe that the tenant of the Casa Rosada will be Javier Milei.
It is very likely that in this aspect the libertarian has had his emotional imbalances, ups and downs, outbursts of fury play against him. It is evident that Massa speaks and presents as president and, in fact, today plays a decisive role in the current government.
From now until the 19th
Of course, the general framework is what marks parity and, in that sense, what happens in the days until the 19th will be relevant:
- Sunday’s debate. Debates do not usually move large electorates, but in a situation of a technical tie they are important. Above all, if one of the two candidates makes serious mistakes.
- The final stretch, especially due to word of mouth and militancy in each of the neighborhoods and areas of work or study.
- We will have to see Macri’s influence to try to calm Milei and change his speech, especially regarding education and health. But it is not easy to restrain the candidate and, suddenly, it is announced that he is going to break relations with Brazil and China, which would produce a catastrophe in foreign trade and jobs. The final stretches are demanding, the candidates are overwhelmed and Milei may be exposed on her emotional roller coaster.
Undecided people tend to be more moderate people, less interested in politics. The issues of everyday life, such as health, education, the price of the ticket, the job, the value of retirement, will weigh heavily in what that group decides. And, as has happened lately in electoral processes, the moderates decide at the end, in the last week and even in the last days.