The dollar accentuated its downward trend, from the change of political scenario and the latest economic measures announced by the national government.
The “blue” closed this Wednesday at $1,000 and for a good part of the day was about to pierce that valuewhich represents a drop of $100 compared to the day before and of $200 since last Friday.
In a tour of downtown Buenos Aires, this medium verified the continuity of control operations of AFIP and Customs agents, who patrolled the streets to avoid the actions of the famous “little trees.”
In the Stock Market, MEP and Cash with Settlement (CCL) They reversed a steep initial decline and ended higher at $875.62 and $890.98, respectively. In this way, the CCL accumulated a decline of $222 in the first three days of the week and the MEP of $23.
«It is possible that the majority have been dollarized before Sunday and given the result of the first round, there are much fewer chances that we will move towards dollarization, which is why it is likely that the market has calmed down,” economist Andrés Reschini of F2soluciones evaluated the behavior of the market in dialogue with this medium. .
“In any case, in this period until the runoff it is possible that the development of the remainder of the campaign will bring with it some volatility. The CCL may also be influenced by the higher percentage allowed by the new PIE for exporters (which now covers all) to settle through this exchange rate,” he added.
Pedro Siaba Serrate of PPI Inversiones spoke in the same vein, who attributed this new scenario to “the low probability of disorderly dollarization given the electoral result and the expectation of a significant increase in CCL’s offer, which could be between US$ 1,800/1,950 million during the month. This is due to the extension of the ’70-30 program’ to the entire universe of exports.»
For his part, Santiago Manoukian of Ecolatina stressed that “the fact that the candidate with the most disruptive proposals and least perception of governance for 2024 (Javier Milei) has obtained a less support the expected implies, at least in the short term, who should adopt a posture moving towards the centerwhich could contribute to some relaxation of devaluation expectations and pressures on parallel dollars.”
Manoukian pointed out that «the loss, for the moment, of the dollarization proposal would operate in this sense, with a La Libertad Avanza candidate who could tend to moderate in his speech and a transition risk that moderates at the margin.»
With the same tone, Nicolás Max Director of Criteria explained that “what happened this week is the counterpart of what happened the day before the elections.” “The market had given priority to Milei was the leader of the vote and that brought with it strong risks for the transition and everyone looked for different types of coverage against the risk of a devaluation of the peso,” he noted.
“Since something happened that surprised the consensus – he continued – what we are seeing is the counterpart where those positions are deactivated. The portfolios no longer have a currency hedging bias and all prices are exaggerated in this new scenario, where the probability that Massa will finally prevail in the runoff election is much greater than what was in the prices before Sunday.”
At the same time, he warned “that the government got more oxygen through the swap with China and the export program” and that all of this “brought some calm in the transition.”
For its part, The Central Bank bought another US$ 15 million today and continued to cut the monthly loss to US$610 million.
This result occurred in a context in which the procedure of the new “70/30 dollar” and where importers renew their complaints daily about the obstacles to accessing dollars at the official price.
A normalization of the operation is expected in the coming days given that the government urgently needs the income of dollars from exports.
It is worth remembering that Next week you will have to pay US$ 3.5 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in concept of capital and interest.