And now for the final word on who will win the gold Sunday at the 97th Oscars.
Since Cannes in May I have been reviewing the movies, assessing their awards potential, predicting the Oscar nominations, and now finally here is my best and FINAL guess as to who and what will emerge triumphant in all 23 categories for the 2025 Academy Awards. So much has been written, so much has been talked about, and actually overall for me it has been a swell year for movies, at least good ones, or at the very least enough good ones to make this lineup of nominees for Oscars a deserving one.
Let me caution these are my predictions, some still shaky, but not necessarily what I might have voted for. In other words, this is not a wish list but rather a reflection of where the long and ever-unwinding road stood as Oscar balloting ended on February 18 at 5 p.m. PT, when the Academy called “pencils down” and the votes were in from its 9,945 eligible voters, or at least those who actually did vote. That is especially a big question only the Pricewaterhouse accountants who add up the digital ballots can answer in a year so hugely affected by the L.A. wildfires and complete devastation for so many, a lot of them Academy members. Pundits can pontificate all they want, but no one but a couple of bean counters knows the truth at this moment.
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Here’s my best guess, but as I always say please don’t sue me if I am wrong and you lose your Oscar betting pool because you went with my hunches.
Carlo Allegri/Getty Images
Best Picture
THE NOMINEES
Anora (Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers)
The Brutalist (Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers)
A Complete Unknown (Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers)
Conclave (Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers)
Dune: Part Two (Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers)
Emilia Pérez (Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers)
I’m Still Here (Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers)
Nickel Boys (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, Producers)
Wicked (Marc Platt, Producer)
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The Academy uses a preferential voting system for only this category that is designed to produce a consensus win, either the most “liked” movie of the 10 nominees or the least “disliked.” Keep that in mind here. There really was no front-runner until a couple of weeks ago, where within the course of 24 hours Anora emerged with a triple crown of Critics Choice, PGA and DGA wins — all three among the most previously reliable indicators of where Oscar wins are blowing. Timing was everything as Oscar voting began just two days later and Anora grabbed all the headlines and the momentum. Although The Brutalist certainly has its admirers, not to mention 10 nominations, and late-breaker A Complete Unknown was well liked, only Conclave, which would go on to win the BAFTA Best Film Award and then after Oscar voting was over the often prescient SAG Outstanding Cast Award, seemed to have similar momentum and likeability despite the absence of a Directing nomination for Edward Berger. That fact didn’t hurt Argo, Green Book or CODA, which each went on to win three Oscars including Best Picture. This one is for me a toss-up, a virtual tie, with a good argument for both films to emerge victorious. I don’t recommend you go out on a limb here, but I will in a true nail-biter between Anora and Conclave.
THE WINNER: Conclave
Leading Actor
THE NOMINEES
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
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Past winner Adrien Brody has been the presumed front-runner here winning at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA before losing to Timothée Chalamet at SAG after Oscar voting had closed. Still, while the Actors branch is the biggest by far in the Academy and that SAG boost for Chalamet turned this back into a race, it may have been too late.
THE WINNER: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Leading Actress
THE NOMINEES
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
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Demi Moore’s signature turn as an aging fitness guru turning to a fountain-of-youth-style substance to stay relevant in an ageist business certainly hit a chord, as did her Golden Globe acceptance speech. Since then, she has added Critics Choice and SAG honors, but Mikey Madison has proven formidable in the last lap with BAFTA and Indie Spirit wins. Fernanda Torres is the wild card, a Golden Globe winner for Drama Actress in a movie that was being discovered just as voters started paying attention. Another toss-up here, but Moore’s veteran standing counts for something.
THE WINNER: Demi Moore, The Substance
Supporting Actor
THE NOMINEES
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
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All terrific performances, but Kieran Culkin has simply dominated every single precursor awards opportunity and there is absolutely no indication Oscar will be anything different. Take it to the bank.
THE WINNER: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Supporting Actress
THE NOMINEES
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
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Despite the bumps in the road for her movie, Zoe Saldaña — with what, like Culkin’s, is really a leading role — did it all in the movie and also, like Culkin, has not been defeated all season. She gets her hands on Oscar.
THE WINNER: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
Director
THE NOMINEES
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
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Sean Baker started the warm-up for the season by winning none other than the Palme d’Or at Cannes. Most recently he won the DGA, and that almost always presages an Oscar win this category. Corbet could be a spoiler like he was at the Golden Globes, but don’t count on it.
THE WINNER: Sean Baker, Anora
Adapted Screenplay
THE NOMINEES
A Complete Unknown (Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)
For some reason Peter Straughan’s magnificent Conclave adaptation was one of the many ineligible scripts at the WGA Awards where Nickel Boys eventually won. Straughan told me he has no idea why WGA nixed it, but his victories at Golden Globes, Critics Choice , BAFTA, and the USC Scripters are more than enough to assure the Oscar will be his as well.
THE WINNER: Conclave, Peter Straughan
Original Screenplay
THE NOMINEES
Anora (Written by Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Written by Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Written by Coralie Fargeat)
A category with an embarrassment of riches, but despite some exceptions in Oscar history, it is safest to go with a film with a Best Picture nomination versus one without. Jesse Eisenberg’s well-liked A Real Pain, the surprise BAFTA winner in this category, isn’t up for Best Picture but could take this if Anora falters. That seems a bit of a long shot.
THE WINNER: Anora, Sean Baker
Animated Feature
THE NOMINEES
Flow (Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman)
Inside Out 2 (Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen)
Memoir of a Snail (Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek)
The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann)
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This category defines the richness of a truly great year in animation. Despite Inside Out 2 being the year’s highest-grossing film with $1.7 billion globally, and despite The Wild Robot being so highly praised and sweeping the Annies, the undercat here is Latvia’s wonderful Flow (also up for International Feature), charming audiences since Cannes and winning a boatload of awards itself. This one is also a toss-up, a David vs Goliath-style showdown. I am completely torn. Flip a coin.
THE WINNER: Flow
International Feature
THE NOMINEES
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)
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Brazil’s I’m Still Here has really been surging and its Best Picture nomination is proof of that, but with 13 nominations across the board it might be hard to deny Jacques Audiard’s European Film Awards, BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe wins despite all that controversy. Unless France is completely jinxed it will be the country’s first winner since 1992 (!)
THE WINNER: Emilia Pérez
Documentary Feature
THE NOMINEES
Black Box Diaries (Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin)
No Other Land (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Porcelain War (Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, Paula DuPre’ Pesman)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety)
Sugarcane (Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn)
Lots of admirable choices here but my hunch says the combination of art and the war in Ukraine will have the edge.
THE WINNER: Porcelain War
Cinematography
THE NOMINEES
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)
Greig Fraser took the Oscar for Dune: Part One, the beloved Ed Lachman won at ASC for Maria, but BAFTA winner Crawley will likely prevail for The Brutalist in all its VistaVision glory.
THE WINNER: The Brutalist, Lol Crawley
Costume Design
THE NOMINEES
A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)
How can Wicked lose?
THE WINNER: Wicked, Paul Tazewell
Production Design
THE NOMINEES
The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)
Goodness knows it is gonna be Wicked here too.
THE WINNER: Wicked, Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales
Film Editing
THE NOMINEES
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)
Each of these is also up for Best Picture and the winner here, as it often does, will tell us as much about that race as it does this one. Pay close attention if it is Anora, The Brutalist or Conclave. This is the category pundits will be awaiting the…
