The European Commission’s top jobs will all soon be up for grabs again after next month’s European election.
Which country will get the all-powerful trade commissioner job and oversee the EU’s impending trade war with China? Will the Poles secure a newly created defense portfolio to square up to their arch-rivals the Russians? And who will get to police U.S. tech giants like Apple and Google as Europe’s next competition chief?
Even before the June 6-9 election, maneuvering is underway to net the prize slots.
Each of the EU’s 27 countries gets a commissioner job in the highly political post-election carve-up, but there’s a tooth-and-nail fight to determine who gets what. Trade and competition are the blue-ribbon portfolios with genuine power; those involving sport, education and multilingualism are the kiss of death.
Last time round, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asked each country to put forward two candidates — a man and a woman. If she comes back for a second term, we can expect the same process.
It’s still early days, but POLITICO is here to guide you through the runners and riders being mentioned in political and diplomatic circles.
SELECT A COUNTRY
Austria
Name(s) in the mix: Karoline Edtstadler (EU minister) — European People’s Party.
Who has the job now: Johannes Hahn (Budget).
Desired portfolio: Enlargement.
Who makes the nomination: Chancellor Karl Nehammer — European People’s Party.
Belgium
Names in the mix: Alexander De Croo (current prime minister) — liberals; Elio Di Rupo (minister-president of Wallonia) — Party of European Socialists; Paul Magnette (president of the Francophone Socialist Party) — Party of European Socialists; Frank Vandenbroucke (health minister) — Party of European Socialists; Sophie Wilmès (Belgian MP) — liberals.
Caveat: The Belgian election on June 9 and the political uncertainty expected afterward make it difficult to predict which party will be able to nominate the country’s European commissioner.
Who has the job now: Didier Reynders (Justice).
Desired portfolio: Unclear, as it depends on who gets the nod.
Who makes the nomination: In theory, outgoing Prime Minister De Croo (liberals), but the parties who win the Belgian election will want a say as the nomination for the European Commission is normally a part of coalition negotiations.
Bulgaria
Name(s) in the mix: Bulgaria holds a parliamentary election on June 9, the same day as the European election, which makes it hard to predict who will be nominated. One to watch will be MEP Eva Maydell, a specialist in digital affairs and artificial intelligence, from the GERB party, which looks set to be first past the post in the election.
Who has the job now: Iliana Ivanova (Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth).
Desired portfolio: Unclear.
Who makes the nomination: The new Bulgarian prime minister, who will be decided after the election.
Croatia
Name(s) in the mix: Dubravka Šuica (commissioner for democracy and demography) — European People’s Party.
Long shot to get the gig: Andrej Plenković (prime minister) — European People’s Party. Plenković could pop up as an alternative to von der Leyen if she fails to secure a second term, but is unlikely to come to Brussels for a “normal” commissioner portfolio.
Who has the job now: Dubravka Šuica (Democracy and Demography).
Desired portfolio: Unclear.
Who makes the nomination: Prime Minister Plenković — European People’s Party.
Cyprus
Name(s) in the mix: Stella Kyriakides (commissioner for health and food safety) —European People’s Party; Harris Georgiades (former finance minister) — European People’s Party; George Lakkotrypis (former energy minister) — European People’s Party; Constantinos Kombos (foreign minister) — not affiliated.
Who has the job now: Kyriakides (Health and Food Safety).
Desired portfolio: Perhaps health again. The Cypriot shipping lobby is pushing for the transport portfolio.
Who makes the nomination: Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides — European People’s Party.
What we’re hearing: For months, the expectation was that President Christodoulides would replace Kyriakides as the Cypriot commissioner. In Brussels her track record was also seen as mixed at best. However, as we inch closer to the election, the chances are growing she will secure a second term, as it would be more difficult to balance grumbling from other aspirants.
Czech Republic
Name(s) in the mix: Danuše Nerudová (former presidential candidate) — European People’s Party; Marcel Kolaja (MEP for the Czech Pirate party) — The Greens/EFA; Marek Mora (deputy finance minister).
Long shot to get the gig: Trade Minister Jozef Síkela is no newbie in EU circles. He has played a key role in coordinating Europe’s response to soaring energy prices since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Who has the job now: Věra Jourová (Vice President, Values and Transparency).
What we’re hearing: According to an unofficial deal in the government coalition, the right to nominate the next commissioner should go to coalition partners STAN, who want Danuše Nerudová for the economic portfolio, or to the Pirates, who would like to see Kolaja as internal market commissioner. But PM Petr Fiala has the final word on the nomination, and has been pushing Síkela and Mora forward as candidates.
Desired portfolio: Energy, economy, internal market and defense.
Who makes the nomination: Prime Minister Fiala — European Conservatives and Reformists.
Denmark
Name(s) in the mix: Global Climate Policy and Development Minister Dan Jørgensen or Business Minister Morten Bødskov — (both Party of European Socialists).
Who has the job now: Margrethe Vestager (Executive Vice President, Competition).
Desired portfolio: Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager knows her chances for a third term at the EU executive are slim. “The chances of me becoming a commissioner are not that large. I can see that reading the tea leaves,” she told Danish TV2. The Danish government hasn’t backed her — or any candidate so far — for another term, even though she has touted the possibility of running again.
With Vestager expected to leave, the Danes may be hard-pressed to get anything as juicy as her portfolio, so those eyeing big jobs like trade could be disappointed.
Who makes the nomination: Mette Frederiksen (Party of European Socialists) is leading a coalition government. She has been vocal on questions of foreign affairs and defense at the European level — and is herself tipped as a potential European Council president.
Estonia
Name(s) in the mix: Kaja Kallas (prime minister) — liberals.
Long shot to get the gig: Urmas Paet (Reform Party MEP) — liberals.
Who has the job now: Kadri Simson (Energy) — liberals.
Desired portfolio: Kallas’ name is widely circulated as the EU’s next foreign policy chief, but that will depend on the balance of other European top jobs.
Who makes the nomination: Prime Minister Kallas — liberals.
Finland
Name(s) in the mix: Henna Virkkunen, an MEP since 2014, ultra-marathon runner and horse enthusiast from the ruling National Coalition party (European People’s Party). She is running again.
Long shot to get the gig: Elina Valtonen, foreign minister, from the same party.
Who has the job now: Jutta Urpilainen (International Partnerships).
Desired portfolio: Competitiveness, as Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told POLITICO in March. Also: security and defense, enlargement, circular economy and clean transition.
Who makes the nomination: Orpo (European People’s Party), who is governing with the far-right Finns party (European Conservatives and Reformists).
What we’re hearing: Virkkunen told POLITICO: “It’s too early to speculate, but of course it’s a very important job to be a commissioner and I’m willing to consider that after the elections if Prime Minister Orpo proposes that.”
We’ve also heard that Orpo only wants to nominate someone who is running to be an MEP.
France
Name(s) in the mix: Thierry Breton (commissioner for internal market) — liberals, Bruno Le Maire (finance minister) — liberals.
Long shot to get the gig: Elisabeth Borne (French MP and former prime minister).
Who has the job now: Breton (Internal Market).
Desired portfolio: As part of its big push for strategic autonomy, Paris is eyeing the crown jewel of the next Commission: a powerful economic/industrial policy post, which could include competition policy, spearheading the bloc’s new focus on competitiveness.
Who makes the nomination: French President Emmanuel Macron — liberals.
What we’re hearing: Breton is in the running, but given attacks over his record running French company Atos, Macron may be looking for alternatives. One option? Finance Minister Le Maire, who said he’s not interested in the role. But he would say that, wouldn’t he?
Germany
Name(s) in the mix: Ursula von der Leyen (Commission president) — European People’s Party.
Long shot to get the gig: What happens if EU leaders decide they don’t want VDL II, or if the European Parliament won’t back her? How about a regular commissioner job for Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock?
Who has the job now: Von der Leyen (President).
Desired portfolio: Commission president.
Who makes the nomination: European heads of state and government.
Greece
Name(s) in the mix: Margaritis Schinas (Commission vice president, promoting the European way of life) — European People’s Party; Niki Kerameus (interior minister) — European People’s Party; Stavros Papastavrou (ex-minister of state) — European People’s Party; George Gerapetritis (foreign minister) — European People’s Party.
Who has the job now: Schinas (Commission VP, Promoting the European Way of Life).
Desired portfolio: Migration, defense.
Who makes the nomination: Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis — European People’s Party.
What we’re hearing: Chances are high Mitsotakis will decide to keep Schinas in Brussels for a second term, especially if von der Leyen stays on as well.
Hungary
Name(s) in the mix: Olivér Várhelyi (commissioner for neighbourhood and enlargement), Enikő Győri (MEP).
Long shot to get the gig: Győri, who’s running in ninth spot on the Fidesz list, could be a sensible pick as Hungary prepares to take over the rotating presidency in July. She played a key role in Hungary’s first EU Council presidency in 2011 when she was its secretary of state for European affairs. She was ambassador in Rome and Madrid, and speaks English, French and Italian.
Who has the job now: Várhelyi (Neighbourhood and Enlargement), best known for his close ties to Serbia and his audible description of MEPs as “idiots.”
Desired portfolio: Enlargement.
Who makes the nomination: Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is currently without any political alignment on the European stage, having left the EPP in a rule-of-law spat in 2021.
What we’re hearing: In 2019, Orbán didn’t get his first pick for commissioner, László Trócsányi, past the Parliament. Would he want to risk another scrap now?
Ireland
Name(s) in the mix: Michael McGrath (finance minister) — liberals, reportedly