The G20 begins in New Delhi, capital of India, a transcendental summit for the future. It is not so much because of the definitions with which it may end – which in itself it is already assumed that they will not have significant weight – but because of the global context in which this new meeting of the leaders of the world’s main economies takes place.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, climate change, food insecurity and global sustainable development will be the main topics on the agenda. But behind these discussions deeper changes are hidden on the international scene: a growing influence from the global south, the re-emergence of Africa as a key continent and a post-Western outlook that also surpasses China.
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A clear example of this situation is the accession of the African Union (AU) as a permanent member –the only bloc that was part of the G20 until now was the European Union (EU)-, and the most recent presidencies of the event. Indonesia was last year, India is this year, Brazil will be the host in 2024 and South Africa in 2025. The geopolitical map seems to be on the path of an accelerated transition.
“The current crisis in the global order can be seen as the closing of a long historical period in which the West predominated for three centuries and this moment could mark the beginning of a new era whose contours are still taking shape,» he analyzed. Bernabé MalacalzaConicet researcher and professor at the Torcuato di Tella University, when asked by TN.
representative of 80% of the world GDP and 60% of the populationmuch of the international community does not doubt the historical influence of the Group of 20, but understands that it is showing less and less muscle to guide the transformations present in the current turbulent global order.
“Attention will have to be paid to the ability of leaders to transmit a message of unity, something increasingly difficult in a context with two increasingly tight subgroups that revolve around the G7 and the BRICS,” he noted for this article. Tomas Listrani, former Argentine representative in one of the G20 affinity groups.
Important absences with a political message
The leaders’ summit to be held Saturday and Sunday in the Indian capital will have resounding absences such as those of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The Russian’s failure was to be expected due to the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against him for alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine. In his place will be Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The absence of the Chinese leader did cause more surprise. Beijing He did not provide details about the reasons why Xi decided not to travel to India, although the growing border tensions between both countries played a predominant role. It is the first time since he became president in 2013 that Xi Jinping has missed a G20 leaders’ summit.
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“This decision signals a certain discomfort on the part of China with Indian growth and its growing bias towards the United States,” he reflected in dialogue for this article. Federico Merkeprofessor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of San Andrés, and then added that this situation “It leaves more space for India and Washington.”
«I’m disappointed»Joe Biden stated days ago when he was asked about the absence of his Chinese counterpart. Both leaders spoke for the last time in November last year during the last G20 summit in Indonesia and planned to do so again in India amid attempts to reduce the political and commercial tensions that characterized the relationship between both powers in recent years.
The question that many asked is whether these mistakes take away the relevance of the summit. “It will lack significant geopolitical weightbut it will seek to influence the debate on globalization,” he reflected before TN the investigator Bernabé Malacalza. At the same time, he considered that Putin’s absence «will help avoid the exacerbation of tensions to maintain the central focus on the discussion on the global economic and financial architecture.»
For his part, Tomas Listraniformer Argentine representative in one of the G20 affinity groups, warned that “the absence of both leaders does not imply that the countries are not represented, and since the decision of the final communiqué is by consensus, They will have full capacity to block any content with whom they do not agree.” Above all any position regarding the invasion of Ukraine.
Differences and negotiations over the final statement
The differences in the current complex global panorama were manifested in the arduous negotiations to reach an agreed text among the member countries of the G20. The content of this statement was negotiated for months and it could only be finalized in the last few hours.
“The success of the summit does not depend on the content of the final declaration but of the mere existence of said declaration.»Merke had convincingly argued.
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Listrani elaborated that within the framework of “an international system with overlapping crises, the G20 ends up carrying its backpack with an increasingly diverse agenda, the positions within the forum are more antagonistic and everyone has more reasons to get up from the table and boycott a common project.”
Among the delegations there is not much expectation that there will be a clear statement on the environmental issue. China and the United States are the two main emitters of greenhouse gases, but there are few occasions in which these types of summits end with concrete commitments. It is one of the main concerns of the United Nations.