Specialists propose the necessary changes that the elected president will have to face. Reforms, central problems and differences over the IMF.
Looking ahead to the elections, the five presidential candidates had a point of contact in their campaigns: the need for a change in the economy. In the framework of such dissimilar proposals (radicalized in some cases), The decline in inflation and the accumulation of dollars appear as central challenges for economists consulted by Ámbito. On the contrary, there are differences regarding the importance of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which some interpret as a second-line problem.
The “chainsaw” plan. Detach yourself from the IMF. A bimonetary economy. Explode Dead Cow. In these elections, the economic plane took center stage and the promises acquired all kinds of shapes and colors. However, the price increase appears to be the main obstacle to carrying out any program. “The main challenge is to lower inflation, in any context. Doing so involves deploying a stabilization plan which may have social implications. That is why political leadership to contain is very important,” highlights the specialist in productive development and industrial policy, Leandro Mora Alfonsín.
According to Indec, the CPI is rising at a double-digit monthly rate. The latest data for September indicates 12.7% and 138.3% year-on-year. That is to say: the economy is running behind a regime of high inflation. To break it, according to the economist, the key is that “macro prices, such as the exchange rate, tariffs, salaries and interest rates, converge towards the same place”. For such corrections, “containment on the most social aspects” will be required, as well as reducing the asymmetries on the fiscal front, especially since expectations regarding the trade balance in 2024 are for improvement. This would occur due to the reduction of imports through the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline and the increase in exports through a better harvest, but also, according to Alfonsín, because “the world will increase demand for what we produce” and there will be movements in the interest rate. product of the conflict in the Middle East, which “will affect energy prices.”
Responding to these needs is part of what the economist Noelia Abbate called “long-term economic program”, which is beginning to materialize through the energy and mining investments. This last sector «will have a very important role in terms of the place that Argentina can have in the current global energy transition.» Compliance with the premise will be key for a future renegotiation with the IMF, since the current agreement seems virtually broken by the distance between the set goals and the reality numbers. «This agreement should be contemplated within the economic plan that is carried out in the coming years since it will be a determining factor in the inflation levels that the country has, which will affect the purchasing power of salaries and the availability of foreign currency that the economy demands. manufacturing industry in general,” says the specialist.
The outlook of the economist from the Mirador de Actualidad del Trabajo y la Economía (MATE) is different. Lavih Abrahamwho understands that shaking hands with Kristalina Georgieva “is not the number one priority”, but rather knowing who the macroeconomic adjustment could fall on and “what kind of compensations will be made for the sectors that lose the most, workers, retirees, and recipients of allowances.” In that sense, the idea of a great national and political agreement between unions, employers and social sectors to “have shared responsibilities and that (the adjustment) does not fall on those most in need.”
Lastly, for Aldo Abramexecutive director of the Libertad y Progreso foundation, the changes from now on would have to be based on reforms linked to the internal spending of the State, tax pressure and the letter of the Organic Charter of the Central Bank, so that the entity “does not finance the government.” Starting from this basis, according to the economist, not only will the renegotiation with the IMF “be easy and will even include extra resources to reduce the social cost that this type of reforms bring,” but inflation will be able to return to single digits annually after “four or five years.”
